Do we want to go into next season with Ray Felton and Jason Kidd as our point guards? Felton in 2012 is not the same as Felton in 2010. I question if he is in NBA basketball shape and if he can recover his outside shooting--only 30% from beyond the arc last year. Similarly, If Jason Kidd's recent DWI arrest is an indication of how he intends to behave off court, I would be quite concerned if I am MSG management. Kidd was presumably brought in to mentor Lin, but what sort of role-model does he provide? Is his recent drunken misconduct incident a one time occurrence or is it part of a larger alcohol problem previously hidden from the public. Did the Knicks do a proper background check? . Kidd and the Knicks have some serious damage control, including a show by Jason of mea cultpa and much remorse (and/or rehab if Kidd ihas an AA problem) and/or some community service, before introducing Kidd to the fans and children at the Garden of Dreams.
I hope the above elements enter into MSG thinking before allowing Lin to walk away for nothing. I cannot believe that the Knicks will be better without Lin and receiving nothing in return going into next season. The absence of a penetrating point guard who can run a pick n roll and dish off was sorely missing in the playoffs. Lin has demonstrated pure point guard skills who made his teammates better--Novak and Fields especially, but also Chandler and Jeffries. He also inspired the fans, juicing ujp the Garden crowd, and his teammates in what for the Knicks was the most exciting part of the season: See MSG Countdown Highlights of Linsanity Moments.
The Knicks had very few games when everyone (Stat, Chandler, Melo and Lin) was healthy, could practice, and could play on the floor at the same time. The Cleveland game in late February 2012 was one in which all played and the Knicks scored 120 points -- and Lin had a double-double inclujding 13 assists. It would be Woody's job to make the units work, and a full pre-season training camp was planned with Lin et. al. being present. Now that pre-season is in danger. If Woody looked depressed in Vegas yesterday and woujld not talk to the media, I understand why.
The Knicks seemed perfectly comfortable with the initial Lin contract offer from Houston of $5 mil. (1st yr), $5 mil (2nd yr) and $9 mil.(3rd) year, including whatever additional luxury taxes that would carry.. Woody said the Knicks would "absolutely" match that contract. Yet somehow the incrrese from $9 million to $14.8 million (a difference of $5.8 million) now makes the issue a major problem. Is the added "luxury tax" -- that will not come until the 3rd year -- so much a concern that the next season must be forsaken without Lin on board and all that he brings to the floor?
"Linsanity" resulted in a substantial increase in MSG stock as well as in Cablevision advertizing revenue and a new, more lucrative deal with Time Warner Cable TV. What happens to that stock when Lin is gone, Felton comes into camp overweight, and Kidd has another DWI incident, this time injuring another driver or pedestrian. Will the Knicks win more games without Lin? Will they make a deeper playoff run? Will Dolan sell more season tickets or more playoff tickets? How about the Asian American and China market for Lin T Shirts, Knick yearbooks, NBA League Passes and the good public relations/business opportunities resulting from trips to Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Beijing? All of the above should more than cover the "luxury taxes" involved. Ask a Harvard graduate to add it all up. .
Lin's contract may be out of whack, but only in the 3rd year. He could be traded after year 2 or before, so that the Knicks can get something back in time. Lin will be a more desirable trade chip than either Felton, DWI Kidd, or Pablo Prigioni. Lin may also be persuaded to renegotiate a lower 3rd year contract in return for a guranteed 4th year extension and/or a no trade clause in the first two years. Lin has reported that he wants to return to the Knicks. Lin's contract is not nearly the fiasco contract paid to Eddy Curry or Jerome "Big Snax" James, or even to Larry Brown. At least Lin can play the point. DO NOT RE"LIN"QUISH LIN!
I note the sour grapes of a lot of players regarding the money Lin is making for 25 games. They need to get over it. It reminds me of how Tiger was treated by the Golfers when he first started to make his money without proofing how good he was. When players remember this is a business, they figure it our. Lin is great marketing. China and Asian-America are big markets. BIG. The opportunities to make money our beyond the imagination of those who don't know how to create value. Lin wasn't worth it to Dolan, but he is worth it to somebody.
Lin is making more money than all his haters no matter what now. I hope money was the value he wanted. I am betting he is very sad. He got rid of his agent to get a shark to match the potential prey- opportunities. He also could have made more in the New York limelight. The marketing opportunities were boundless even for mediocre play. Now he'll need to be a bit better than mediocre.
Funny how the focus on cash money allows value to be lost and some of us to be robbed blind -- See JP Morgan, Enron, etc.
I wouldn't have paid it, but I'm sad Jeremy is gone. He made the last season a lot of fun -- the most fun I've had since Van Gundy turned into a floor mop.
Too bad. A season with Kidd, Felton and JR promises to suck wind. Lin would have made it exciting basketball. Too bad. And yes Novak just got a lot worse. Good for Lin. Kinda Good for Dolan. Bad for Knicks fans.
LOL, now we get to hear Peaceman's irrational consistent praise of JR during every LBE. Jeeeesh. I'd rather here his constant mistaken analysis of Lin.
#133 James L Dolan
GrandTotal Compensation$12.975 mil5-Year Compensation$87.32 mil Education:College: SUNY New Paltz BS '79
Graduate School: NA
James L Dolan has been CEO of Cablevision Systems (CVC) for 17 years. Mr. Dolan has been with the company for 25 years.
JD obviously never heard of Marco Polo.Talk about no vision, no business acumen and bad taste in friends.It's surprising Daddy hasn't stepped in to straighten out Junior's latest faux pas.Still a few hrs left.Does anyone believe we would be in this world of shyte if DWalsh was still in charge?Loyalty, remember LWilkens and other coaches and players dumped.BBall acumen, ECity, Big Snax & co.Business acumen, Lin drops 150 mil and the key to China in his lap and he says it's too expensive a gamble.They teach you the world is square in New Paltz Jimmy?"The ship be sinkin'".
Despite what seems to be a "Linevitable" departure of Jeremy, I will wait for an announcement from either Dolan or Grunwald. Alan Hahn tweeted the following about an hour ago:
Alan Hahn Tweets
"Off the air now. Reports by @HowardBeckNYT and @KBergCBS say #Knicks will not match Lin sheet. Knicks have not given official word."
Until word is official, I will keep the keys to my ranch.
@Post_up_Prince The sliver of hope that I will hold onto for next couple of hours is that the Knicks are leaking false reports to mess with the Rockets heads, and will actually sign Lin. Maybe Dolan is petty enough to want to mess with Lin's head too. Im giving that a 5% chance
The Knicksblog is reporting:
Knicks Decline Lin Offer Sheet, Linsanity to Houston, by Josh Newman on July 17th, 2012 at 4:54 pm
A surreal 72-hour period has now come to this. Linsanity is heading to Texas.
The Knicks have reportedly declined to match the three-year, back-loaded $25.1 million offer sheet signed by Jeremy Linwith the Houston Rockets on Friday.
Had to repeat an excellent back and forth from another Knicks blog
Blogger# 1: Whether you like or dislike Lin, the truth is he is an asset that we are letting walk away with nothing in return. All we needed to do was keep him a year (at 5 million) and then trade him to several willing teams for a potential first round draft pick. We would also get a trade exception which would help with future moves.THIS IS A BAD BUSINESS DECISION EVEN IF IT'S A REASONABLE BASKETBALL DECISION. HORRIBLE DAY FOR THE KNICKS.
Blogger# 2: Is that all? Who are these willing teams? Where were these willing teams the last few weeks, when anyone could try to get him to sign an offer sheet and not give up the first round pick you seem to think they will be lining up to give us next year? And if we are trading him, let's go ahead and assume he has not lived up to expectations. So now he has lower value than he does now, yet teams that didn't want to simply try to sign him now want to take on his bloated contract AND give us a first? Oh yeah, we totally should have jumped on that plan - what could possibly go wrong?!
Blogger 2 wins hands down!
@Peaceman Yeah, blogger 2 wins cuz blogger #1 is focused on trading him instead of having one more piece to make a run.
Steve Novak just got worse today
JR Smith just got worse today
Knicks starting 2 guard just got worse today
Knicks playoff versatility just got worse today
The Knicks will have a good team and will be one of top four teams in the east. But they chose not to "go for it" today. If I knew that the Knicks weren't serious about going for it, then you don't trade for Camby but keep a younger guy like Josh Harrellson. If you are not TRYING to win a title in the next two years, then you nullify Kidd and Camby moves.
There will be a time in the playoff, if not before that we will have really needed him, and we won't have him. To have any chance, we needed to put a very deep team together like the 88-89 Pistons
Again, Lin was free to Knick fans, if not Dolan.
As far as I am concerned, any Knick fans who supports this move -- knowingly or unknowingly -- supports putting a weaker team on the floor.
@MODI Marc Ganis, president of Chicago-based SportsCorp: I can't speak to whether it's a good basketball decision. But from a marketing standpoint, I'd say (letting Lin go is) a very poor decision."
I agree with this guy. Moreover, I care more about a good basketball decision than marketing. I think we are doing the right thing. It's not like we are giving up Micheal Jordan in his prime.
@Peaceman @Statesman States, the point was not that Lin is not is a Vinnie Johnson clone. He is not and his skill set is different. The point is that we gave up an important piece of a rotation when we absolutely did not have to except for a grudge by Dolan.
Every reason to give up Lin is an emotional one or a pseudo-financial one.
The team is not better.
If anyone on this board would like to try out for our starting 2-guard slot, please let me know and I will root for your success.
@Peaceman Bad marketing and basketball.
Maybe we didn't give up MJ, maybe we didn't give up Isiah, maybe we didn't give up Dumars... but maybe we gave up an important guard in a rotation like Vinnie Johnson whose contributions were also needed to win at the highest level...
NYTimes reporting that Knicks wont resign Lin
This is big mistake.
@MODI Agreed. I don't see how we are in any way better by this decision and, if true, there is no longer Lin to (1) orchestrate the offense or (2) be there for trade purposes down the road. This sounds like Dolan being a petty, petulant bully--allowing his anger at Lin, Lin's agent, and Houston to influence an action that in no way enhances the team's short range and I believe, ultimately, its best long range interests.
NEW YORK TIMES
Report: Lin Headed to Houston By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSPublished: July 17, 2012 at 6:17 PM ET
HOUSTON (AP) — Jeremy Lin's incredible run in New York won't have a sequel, according to a published report.
The New York Knicks are not planning to match Houston's offer for Lin, a restricted free-agent, The New York Times reported Tuesday, citing an unidentified person briefed on the situation.
The Times said deliberations were over for the Knicks as of Tuesday afternoon, and they had elected — as was widely expected — not to equal the Rockets' three-year, $25 million offer sheet, signed by Lin last Friday. New York officially had until 11:59 EDT to decide whether to re-sign Lin, and The Times cautioned there is an "incredibly small" chance the decision could be reversed. Madison Square Garden chairman James Dolan had the final say.
@ MODI & POSTUP... you guys sound like financial advisers for Dolan.
I personally don't care if Dolan loses 500 Million in stock. I want a Championship team. Lin it would seem would be a major distraction. People would bitch about his minutes, his teammates would resent him, other teams would target him due to jealousy of his contract and overnight rise to fame. We need to be the Hunters...with Lin we'd be the Hunted by every team. 5 1/2 hours left to see if Lin turns into a Orange and Blue pumpkin or Rockets outta here.
From same article:
"So what happens to MSG if the Knicks fail to retain Lin? Nate Silver continued, saying, "as of late Monday morning, on the mere possibility that Lin might not be re-signed, MSG stock had lost about $50 million in market value." This was on a rumor -- imagine what the company's losses will be if losing Lin becomes a reality.
A wrinkle I wasn't aware of that mitigates cap situation if Lin becomes a bust:
From ESPN's Larry Coon:
"If worse comes to worst, another new rule can help the team out. The "stretch provision" allows a team to waive a player and extend his salary payments over twice the number of remaining seasons, plus one. So if Lin is waived with one season remaining on his contract, he would be paid his salary over three years.
Here's the important part -- teams also may elect to stretch a waived player's salary-cap hit over the same number of years. So if Lin proves to be a disaster over the next two seasons, the Knicks can waive him, stretch the payment of his $14.8 million salary over three years, and reduce his salary-cap amount to about $4.9 million in each season. This would reduce the team's tax bill significantly. If the Knicks are right at the tax line, a $4.9 million salary would translate to a $7.35 million tax bill. This is much more palatable.
In sum, Lin will continue to be a financial bonanza if he keeps playing up to his potential. If he ends up being a bust, the Knicks have the means to mitigate the damage. The potential upside is well worth the risk.
Great post PUP, and you know I am in full agreement. I was going to submit a Knicks post to KFB but it is half redundant with yours (which I just looked at), so I just left it at my other site and added your link:
Will reprint a relevant paragraph on Gilbert Arenas:
"In strictly basketball terms, will Lin be overpaid given his thin resume?: Definitely. Is this outrageous? No. Rashard Lewis or Gilbert Arenas making 20 million last year is outrageous. What’s more instructive is the contract a young Arenas signed in 2003 with the Washington Wizards."
"Despite only two seasons and one full season as starter for Golden State, Arenas’ contract was more than double Lin’s size (six years and $60 million). Arena’s stats (18 points; 6.3 assists; 43% shooting) and style (quick first step; fearlessness and reckless with ball) had similarities to Lin’s 26 game stretch as a starter. Arenas also benefitted from a peculiar contractual loophole, but unlike the Knicks, Golden State was not allowed to match the offer."
Arenas played more games than Lin, but was so much noise made about him getting 60 mil?
@MODI Thanks for the co-sign. Much appreciated coming from you. The additional points you make in your article are quite "Lincisive." The Gilbert Arenas deal is indeed worth noting. Hopefully, someone at MSG reads this stuff.
@Post_up_Prince Thanks PUP, I also wouldn't dismiss any the potential attraction of Lin to the Clippers in a sign and trade. After NY and Houston, he would be highly marketable in LA and cheap ass Sterling might like that if he can't retain CP3.
@MODI I said the same thing to Peaceman (3rd post from bottom) regarding Lin's potential attractiveness to LA Clippers as part of compensation package for CP3.
More support for resigning Jeremy Lin:
Lin v. Felton compared:
Today's NY Post reports that "Losing Lin could mean big $ Hits" for MSG": http://www.knicksfanaticsblog.com/
MSG stock lost $36 million on news of Jeremy Lin's potential departure from New York and Jason Kidd's DWI arrest. Let's see how far MSG stock plummets today by the 5 p.m. closing bell with no announcement on Lin's status.
Authentic Knick Jerseys--i.e. signed by Lin--were selling at $600 - $650 last wee, according to Model's sports store, but could fall to $200 if Lin leaves town.
Elsewhere the N.Y Post reported Carmelo Anthony saying he definitely wants Lin back and, though he did not speak recently to Dolan, Melo believes that Dolan wants him back also. Melo said:“I hope we get it done, man,” Anthony said. “I hope we can get it done. I would love to see him back, honestly, I would definitely love to see him back." Clyde Frazier is also on record that he believes Lin should be retained and not be dismissed to Houston with nothing in return. .
The petition to retain Lin is picking up steam -- and now has over $10,000 signatures: http://www.change.org/petitions/new-york-knicks-management-keep-jeremy-lin-match-the-houston-rockets-offer
Someone at MSG needs to be rational rather than emotional, and weigh the costs vs. profits going forward. I know a Harvard graduate who could help you figure it all out. LGK
“I know they’ve got a lot of money,” one NBA coach said on Monday. “But they aren’t going to match that offer because they can’t match that offer.”They have wasted a fortune over the past 10 years, the Knicks have, have exactly one playoff win in that time to show for it. They have made so many bad basketball decisions you lose count. They kept trying to spend their way back to the top, and it never worked.But they are doing the right thing letting Lin walk. Good for Dolan, good for the Knicks. Lin is the people’s choice, no doubt about that. Sells a lot of jerseys. His was never going to be at the top of the Garden. Read more: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/jason-kidd-dwi-hamptons-ny-knicks-letting-jeremy-lin-walk-houston-article-1.1115404#ixzz20sC7rzwh
Should the Knicks match Jeremy Lin's offer sheet with the Rockets?
Yes 40.9% No 59.1%
Total votes: 13095
CBA Salary Cap Explained:
It’s NEXT year that it starts increasing. Under the previous CBA and for the first two seasons of the current CBA (up through 2012-13) the penalty is $1 for each dollar the team is over the tax line. Starting next season, the rate starts to climb, and for every $5 million over the tax line the rate gets even higher. For each successive $5 million, the rates are: $1.50, $1.75, $2.50, $3.25, $3.75, etc. For example, a team $12 million over the tax line would pay $12 million in tax through this season. Starting next season, a team $12 million over the tax line will pay $21.25 million.
Starting in 2014-15 there is also a repeater rate. For 2014-15 it’s triggered when a team has been a taxpayer in all of the previous three seasons. Starting in 2015-16 it’s triggered when a team has been a taxpayer in any three of the four previous seasons. The repeater rate adds $1 to the non-repeater rate, so a team that’s $12 million over the tax line and would have paid $21.25 million if it wasn’t a repeater would pay $33.25 million if it was a repeater.
@dltknicks Good info DLT. It seems that with our without Lin, Knicks will be paying luxury tax for a while, since they are not likely to be under the salary cap for quite some time.
@dltknicks With or without Lin it looks as though the Knicks will be paying luxury taxes for a while, since I do not see them getting under the cap any time soon.
It's done despite your plea. I'm wondering why ( besides giving up your ranch) would you have so much faith in very flawed PG. Lin is a turnover machine who can't go left. I feel very assured that Felton will return to form as he is happy to be back in New York. I believe the Lin you will see from now on will be the one Mario Chalmers destroyed. Lin has a bulls-eye on his head by every guard in the league and yes jealousy is the culprit.
You can tell by Melo's calling Lin's contract "ridiculous" and JR basically saying the rest of the knicks don't like the fact that he hasn't earned the type contract offered will create problems in the locker room. Also Dolan is a guy who has an affinity for loyalty. Dolan will not forgive Lin sneaking into Vegas to reconstruct his contract to Houston after Grunwald told him the Knicks would match Houston's offer.
You keep talking of trading Lin .... you can't trade someone who has been exposed ...which is exactly what is going to happen to Lin in Houston. The Knicks are aligning some nice trade pieces as we speak for CP3 this trade deadline. Fortunately LIN is not among them.
@Peaceman You're right I am trying to protect my ranch but also my enthusiasm for the Knicks this season. We disagree about Lin's talent and contribution to the team. Melo was speaking about the contract being "ridiculous" not Lin or Lin's value to the team. Lin is not perfect but his athleticism, body control, work ethic, court vision and intelligence can go a long way toward enhancing his game. As Modi has noted, Lin has a point guard's court sense that you can't teach--(see Tony Douglas). Experience and a little patience will enable him to improve his defense, cut down on his turnovers and also go more often with strength and confidence to his left--which he shown he can do by the way. He already has a respectable outside shot. Finally, if CP3 is the goal, would not Lin be of interest to the Clippers in terms of compensation?
Yesterday, with the Lin situation still unresolved — at least publicly — the team finalized a sign and trade to acquire point guard Raymond Felton from the Trail Blazers and an NBA source told The Post last night Felton has already been told he is the Knicks’ starting point guard and that Jason Kidd will be his backup.
However, if the Knicks do decide to match Lin’s offer sheet, the Knicks would only do so to have Lin as a potential trade chip and with designs on playing Kidd at shooting guard. The Knicks would not be permitted to trade Lin until Dec. 15.
@Post_up_Prince No PUP.. because the real Lin will step forward. "Linsanity" is a metaphor for what should not happen..aka a Fluke. There is a reason why Lin got cut twice from different NBA teams. Who would want Lin when he plays his real game aka vs Heat, 2nd game of the Nets and his godawful showing at San Antonio????? Who's going to want him and that bloated Contract? The Stars aligned for him once in his lifetime. Lin is more over than MC Hammer.
U mean Melo has been exposed to Heats in game 1 playoff. Melo was also exposed to Dallas in its game 2, having 2-12. The point is u just pick one bad Heat game from Lin and make up the whole garbage, while u ignore the other same stuff from Melo. Where is your mind?